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The mass burning of agricultural stubble in Punjab – a key driver of toxic air across the Indo-Gangetic plains and especially the NCR – returns to debate every year. While state governments claim that farm-fire incidents are falling, a new iFOREST study, echoed by an NDTV independent investigation last year, reveals a significant undercount of these fires. Why? Because farmers are burning stubble after 3 pm, when no satellites are passing overhead. With nearly 90% of large fires taking place during this “blind window,” the official data dramatically underreports the actual scale of burning. This “hidden fire zone” may be a major reason behind severe pollution spikes and worsening smog levels despite lower reported fire numbers.

In this Special Report, India Today’s Sonal Mehrotra Kapoor discusses a groundbreaking new study with Chandra Bhushan, CEO of iFOREST. The report reveals that official data significantly undercounts stubble burning in North India because monitoring satellites like MODIS and VIIRS only track fires between 10:30 AM and 1:30 PM. Bhushan explains that farmers have shifted burning times, stating, ‘So the satellite that is used to measure farm fire only has visibility during a window of three hours. 21 hours, we have nothing to see what is happening on the ground.’ The study finds that over 90% of large fires in Punjab and Haryana now occur after 3 PM. Despite these monitoring gaps, Bhushan notes a positive trend, highlighting that the total burnt area has reduced from 30,000 square kilometers in 2021 to 20,000 square kilometers recently.